[Stumbles Fusemaker]

I have some theories on the crafting system and some insight into how the (standard, rapid, bold, wait) works.


Elemental Heat:
I think crafting has some sort of value that can go up and down. Every time you select standard, rapid or bold, this value goes up. When you wait, this value goes down. Naturally its like like rubbing your hands together real fast... crafting creates friction which produces heat.


The Proper Heat Zone:
I think that, when crafting, you need to get this heat to the right temperature. There is a range of possible values for heat and a 'zone' which you must hit in order to succeed. I've been able to successfully craft items by alternating between standard and 1 or more waits. When I fail, theres two possibilities, either the elemental heat is too high, or its too low. If its too low, I craft. If it too high, I wait once or twice depending on how far I think I am from hitting the zone. It would make sense that rapid increases the heat faster than standard. I'm not so sure about bold, but since your supposed to be taking your time, less heat than standard would make sense.


Some additional thoughts about crafting:

• The harder the item is to craft, the smaller the zone, and the more volitile (random strenth of the rises and falls) the elemental heat.
  
• This heat analogy also makes sense why your get unstable elements when you fail repeatedly (your heat level goes off the charts).
  
• Its possible that the farther the heat lies outside the zone the more damage is done by a failure.
  
• The zone itself could comprise of several sub-zones; each with different probabilities of success/failure.

Colors:
I think the colors that appear during crafting may indicate the current status effect on the heat levels.
My crafting is still pretty low, so my ability to experiment about the colors is very limited.
So far I have 2 very rough theories on this; both of which are probobly wrong, but may still hit some of the fundemental underpinnings.


1st theory on colors:
It may be that durability and quality have separate elemental heat levels. The color, may indicate which level is higher. Yellow for rapid, red for bold, white for neutral and glowing for optimal. (note that I've generally found glowing to have a better success rate than any other color).


2nd theory on colors:
The colors may indicate how far you are from the zone (as an absolute value measure of distance from the zone center). White could indicate that your close to the approximate starting value. Yellow could be that your close to the heat point, red that your far from the heat point, and glowing that your in the heart of the heat point.


Is there a Pattern to the colors?
The colors definitely have some kind of pattern, but I have yet to figure out how to control the cause of the color changes if its possible. If the above theories are even close, then controlling the colors should be somewhat possible (though maybe only if the volitility of the craft is very low).


Other color related questions:
I'm not sure if the colors affect your ability to HQ.
I did notice that crafting on a white doesn't give much quality at all.
Maybe yellow has less of a chance to damage the durability on failure?
Maybe red has a greater chance to increase quality?
Maybe the color represents an area of the zone you need to hit to get solid progress?
Clearly theres a lot more experimentation needed here.

[eblue99]

Funnily enough I was writing a document on crafting today. Here's my version, not responding directly to any of your points in it. Just my current running theories. It is quite the wall of text though.

I like your ideas, but I'm not sure how a heat theory would work when stabilization is considered. Plus colors don't progress in a standard order, so hard to judge a heat zone. I'll have to experiment with this theory of yours.

Spoiler

Judging Synthesis Success

The primary indicator that I have chosen to use for the purpose of this theory is the progress bar. Yes, with this system it is all theory, but I believe I have a valid indication. I also am not choosing to specify any particular craft that this applies to. As far as this information is concerned all crafts are the same mechanically; differing only in output. Will use example cases from Gold smithing as it is my most familiar craft.

Basic Information

-First you should understand what outcomes synthesis can give you.

Progress: This is the green bar that slowly crosses your screen from 0% to 100%. When it reaches 100% the crafting is done for that item.

Durability: This is how strong the item is and how much synthesis work the materials can endure. If this reaches 0 at any point the synthesis is a failure and your materials are lost, even at 100%.

Quality: The "value" of the item you are creating. Higher values can prompt a bonus to the item listed as +1 through +3. It is also possible to create a greater number of items then the original craft. Though I have only seen this happen with recipes that already had a number greater then 1 item created. I assume it is intended to be a bonus for crafting "parts." Also note that there is no hard number to create an improved item. I have created a bone ring with 240 quality and it still ended up normal and a 50 quality ring go +1. Higher quality only serves to give a better percentage chance for the random roll.

*Element stabilization: This is a hidden stat in my opinion. Some types of synthesis can increase the rate an element destabilizes. Using the wrong tool can also increase the rate at which this happens. Generally the destabilization occurs in this order:

Small sparks > Big sparks > Destabilized (Small ring around glowing orb) > Greatly destabilized (Bigger circle) > Chaotic > Boom

It is not unheard of for the element to jump higher on the list faster. Either the recipe is far too high for you, or you need to try another tool. Repeated successes can re-stabilize an element. Going chaotic will also re-stabilize the element when it explodes, but with a durability loss.

-When performing a synthesis you are given at minimum four choices for how to craft. I am not covering special crafter abilities as they require further investigating.

Rapid Synthesis: High progress, low durability penalty, very low quality bonus.
Notes: With current changes, the durability loss on Rapid has been increased to be on par with Standard Synthesis when failing, but still lower on successes. Although, I also believe the chance to cause an element to destabilize has been increased with repeated uses of rapid. A destabilizing element can cause further durability losses on top of the ones created by synthesizing.

Standard Synthesis: Medium progress, medium durability penalty, medium quality bonus.
Notes: With current changes, the durability loss has been lowered significantly to bring it on par with a rapid failure. Failures with standard will still cause a higher durability loss then rapid, not counting any bonuses from destabilization.

Bold Synthesis: Low progress, high durability penalty, high quality bonus.

Wait: Does exactly what it says. You wait. This causes a cumulative durability loss that begins at one and increases incrementally by one (IE 1, 2, 3, 4, etc). This can be useful when attempting to manipulate the color system to improve your chances. However, due to the increasing cost it is inadvisable to perform this option more then 4 times. At the fourth use, you have built up a durability loss of 10 points, generally on par with a normal durability loss from crafting.

As we mentioned it, a brief summery of the color system goes as follows. There are, in my opinion only 3 real colors and 1 random unknown. The colors are White, Yellow, and Red, with the unknowing being a white orb with yellow and red flashes within it. I believe this because of the manner in which SE did not address the random color during their Q&A on the Lodestone.

White: Highest bonus to success. No real bonuses toward quality.
Yellow: Medium bonus toward success. Medium bonus toward quality.
Red: Lowest success bonus. High quality bonus.
Random: Actual color chosen at random by system. Player cannot see which color is up. However, you have at least a 66% chance that the orb is not red and therefore have a decent chance of succeeding. I believe this to be the reason why people believe they get decent successes on random over red.

Evaluating success

Ok, now that the basics are out of the way, lets get to the meat of my theory.

First and foremost, you have to think about crafting as a matter of percentages. Your job is to make the progress bar to travel from 0% to 100% before your durability travels from 100% to 0%. The methods you use in between are what help you do this. So the best thing you can do is stack the odds in your favor. You have four ways to really do this: By color, by synthesis, by tool, and by rank.

Color: The colors in order of success (best>worst) are simple: White > Yellow > Red

Synthesis:Currently I rank the success rates for synthesis such: Standard > Rapid > Bold

Tool: Dependent on recipe. This can only be discovered through trial and error. I also place the "lab" buff in this category. I don't believe it helps success directly, more that it helps keep the element stabilized. This helps negate penalties to durability.

Rank: Overall the best way to ensure success. Get a higher rank. Training books also fall under this category. However, I have not obtained one to study the effect it has on success rates.

Taking this into account, the best manner to complete something difficult is to stick to Standard Synthesis on a White orb with lab access. But the real question is how do you determine when your improving?

What I have been using as the best judgement is the progress bar.

Let me explain a bit about progress. Each type of synthesis has a maximum progress allowed.

Rapid Synthesis has a maximum progress of 30%
Standard Synthesis has a maximum progress of 20%
Bold Synthesis has a maximum progress of 10%

This of course is baring any special crafter abilities we haven't seen yet.

When you perform a synthesis there are three messages you can see:

Success: Ex. You perform Standard Synthesis. The attempt succeeds!
Standard: You perform Standard Synthesis.
Failure: You perform Standard Synthesis. The attempt fails!

However, within this I consider there to be 5 degrees of success.

Total Success: This is a success, however with 0 durability loss to the item. This will always show a maximum progress bonus you can achieve at the skill you are currently at. This also generally carries a significant bonus to Quality.
Success: Progress will be in the upper half of the range. Almost always has a quality bonus attached to it. Will have some durability hit, amount depends on type of synthesis. Normally under 10 durability.
Normal: Progress is based loosely on skill, This can actually hit the maximum progress bonus before a Successful synthesis will. However you will have a higher durability hit, around 10-20 most times. Generally gets a quality bonus, rapid synthesis may not here.
Failure: Failure. Lower range for progress, large durability hit. Bold will give quality here, but not much.
Total Failure: Total failure, no progress. Extra large durability hit, I have seen 40 point loss before. Never get quality even on bold.

Ok, so again to the original question: How well am I doing?

Generally what you want to do is watch the progress results.

Are you getting total failures? Probably need to wait a bit before trying this synthesis again.
When you get a success, what is your progress generally? Are you in the 50-75% range or the 75-100% range?
Have you gotten any total successes? What progress did you get?
Does your element go unstable early in the process? Try switching tools.

I generally classify my recipes in the following categories.

No Chance - Can't even attempt.
Known - I can try it, but not very reliable on completion. May eat a bunch of mats to make, or make take longer cause I'm being careful about the colors.
Competent - I'm comfortable with making this. I can guarantee at least a 80% completion rate or higher.
Excel - I can push the synthesis through without worrying about colors. May even start working some bold synthesis in to up the quality of the item.
Mastery - Bold, all day, every time. Did this once with a bone ring. Had 240 quality, still wasn't +1

Any other thoughts and opinions are welcome. I'm always happy to discuss theory. I will likely also put this up in Core eventually as a tutorial.

[Risei]

SE did a Q & A about some aspects of crafting, I believe there was a bigger list but this is all I was able to find. Thread here: http://www.ffxivcore...v-qa-synthesis/

Spoiler

Square Enix FFXIV Q&A: Synthesis

The development and management teams continue to address the questions and concerns of the community in an ongoing FAQ.

The topic addressed this time around is synthesis.

Quote
Q. I haven't been having much success crafting items. What am I doing wrong?

A. The colored, glowing graphics provides players with a large hint toward a successful synthesis. When the glow is white, the synthesis is at its most stable, and the chances of success are high. When the glow takes on a color, however, the chances of success are low. Players seeking simple completion of their synthesis rather than high-quality results should attempt to use the Wait command when the indicator is colored to restore the stability of the synthesis before finishing it.

Q. Is there a trick to synthesizing high-quality items?

A. Though synthesis actions carried out while the colored circle graphic is red suffer a reduced rate of success, they often serve to increase the quality of the synthesis. In addition, the successful execution of consecutive actions also serves to increase quality. Ultimately, the higher the quality of the synthesis process, the more likely it is to yield a high-quality result.

Q. What do the values attached to synthesis materials, such as +1, signify?

A. These values represent bonuses applied to the durability and quality of a synthesis when it is first begun. Unlike increases to quality made during the crafting process, this initial bonus has no bearing on the degree of difficulty of the synthesis. Such bonus materials therefore increase a player's chances at synthesizing high-quality items, without increasing the difficulty of the synthesis.

Q. I am able to choose between using my main hand or off hand tool when beginning a synthesis. What is the difference?

A. Main hand and off hand tools have varying characteristics which manifest themselves in different ways when a high-quality result is achieved while synthesizing. There are many possible outcomes. For instance, a successful synthesis with a main hand tool may result in a +1 or +2 item, while the result obtained with an off hand tool may be a higher yield of regular quality items.

Q. I don't have enough of the crystals I need for synthesis. Is there a way to get more of the certain crystal type I need?

A. Other than looting fresh corpses, crystals can also be obtained through gathering. Further, for Disciples of the Land, allotting elemental bonus points to a certain element will result in a greater likelihood of procuring crystals of that type. Location is another factor to consider, as some places will yield more of certain crystal types than others.

This also gives a hint on what the elemental stat is for. Also, I remember reading on a similar Q&A sheet that SE said the color of the orb you are crafting represents stability as well. So a white solid orb would be optimal for any crafting situation, solid colors are okay and morphing colors are running deeper into instability. Just wanted to throw that in to help you guys out in your theories, if I find a better Q&A sheet I'll post it here.

[Stumbles Fusemaker]

My Approach to Crafting:
I've noticed that when I first begin a challenging crafting I will either succeed or fail on the first standard attempt (I always use standard and wait for challenging crafts). What's important here is that the pattern of choices by which I will succeed or fail when I first begin to craft is repeatable as long as my rank (and shop access buff) remain the same.

For example, as a level 7 weaver I was able to successfully complete a rank 10 leve using the camp cloth crafting access and a pattern waits and standards while I compensated for the 'heat' factor. At first I tried starting my craft with wait then standard, as this usually gives me progress on the first standard attempt. However, in this particular case I noticed that that my usual pattern caused a failure and I eventually botched the synth. So for the next synth I tried starting off with standard (without the wait) and succeeded. In fact, for every synth in the leve thereafter, I was able to sucessfully progress at the start of the synth by doing this. I call this first step "discovering the initial success pattern."

After finding the initial pattern for success, the rest of the synth was all about guessing where the synth was in terms of heat. After the first success I would alternate wait and standard until I failed, in which I would then use standard without the wait (this always succeeded) and then I would continue with the wait / standard pattern until I completed the synth. Once I got this pattern down I was able to successfully craft all the remaining mats in the leve even though I had failed miserably on the first two crafts!

The fact that I have been able to repeat success in this manner tells me I'm on to something.

Indeed volitility does exist and I'm quite sure its randomness depends on rank and possibly other factors (like the colors). But I'm really starting to believe that the randomness is in how much the 'heat' moves up and down when you craft or wait (in that this is ultimately controllable as long as you can guess the approximate range of the volitility). I think the craft becomes impossible when the volitility becomes so strong that using the proper wait or standard will still miss the mark because the random jumps in heat level become so unpredictable. I also think that the 'zone' gets smaller if your craft level is lower than the appropriate crafting level.

[Lights Reverie]

Stumbles Fusemaker, on 04 October 2010 - 10:23 PM, said:

My Approach to Crafting:

I've had similar experience with those leves. The same choice always led to a success on the first try for the same recipe, but not for every recipe.